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The indicator of probability of bankruptcy has received the name of an indicator of Altman
By name the founder.
The method essence consists in the following:
The additive model of a kind is made:
Y - a resultant function;
X - a vector of factors.
Value of function Y is defined by means of the equation, variable which
Reflect some key characteristics of analyzed firm - it
Liquidity, speed of a turn of the capital etc. If for the given firm
The factor exceeds certain threshold size the firm is enlisted
In the category reliable, if the received factor below critical size,
That financial position of such corporation fills with misgivings and to give out the credit
It is not recommended to it.
In Altman's formula five variables are used:
it1 = THAT / it - the relation of a working capital to the sum of actives of firm;
it2 = a recreation centre / it - the relation of the unallotted income to the sum of actives;
it3 = Posd / it - the relation of operational incomes (to a deduction of percent and
Taxes) to the sum of actives;
it4 = it / it - the relation of a market stock value of firm to a total sum
it5 = it / it - the relation of the sum of sales to the sum of actives.
In Altman's model the method of the plural discriminant is applied
The analysis. The classification "rule" received on the basis of the equation,
* If value Y is less 1,767 the firm should be carried to group
* If value Y is more 1,767, firm in immediate prospects bankruptcy
Does not threaten.
For an estimation of financial stability it is possible to use the following formula,
Adapted for the Russian terminology:.
Degree of affinity of corporation to bankruptcy is defined on a scale,
Presented on fig. 4.4. In view of that the formula of calculation Y in
The presented kind differs from the original (in particular, instead of the authorised
The capital (it) in an original variant the market stock value is used
- In our opinion, biassed now the majority of corporations
The indicator) is recommended to lower the top border of "very high" degree
Probabilities of bankruptcy to 1.
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