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To develop offers on change of structure of an investment portfolio.

The general methods of expert estimations were developed within the limits of researches in

Forecasting areas. Their number concern, for example, a known method

- , a method of use of a matrix of the mark estimations which are turned off further

Through use of linear factors of weightiness by each variant. The central problem thus (and no means always it) appears Subjectivity of expert judgements.

The same lack basically is inherent also in a method of paired comparisons

Criteria in which criteria which should be at first are formulated

Then are ordered according to the scales given to it. At the heart of the paired

Comparisons the idea of streamlining of the factors having various weight lies.

Absence of a material for definition of scales is compensated by judgements

Experts to whom various criteria are offered for paired comparisons

Or the purposes. Here that two criteria are compared among themselves only is important or

Two purposes. On the basis of frequency of preferences and by means of arithmetic average

Deviation. To illustrate the given method, we will submit data in a kind Triangular matrix (tab. 2.1).

In each line of this matrix, beginning from above, numbers are written down

Corresponding criteria to which the preference is given. Comparison

It is made in the lines. At first the criterion 1 is compared to all the others,

Then the criterion 2 is in pairs compared to all the others etc. Summarizing Preferences, we receive a basis for definition of ranks.

Table 2.1

Example of an estimation of criteria

The purposes and criteria

it criterion in paired comparisons 1234567

Number of preferences


1. The sum of sales

2. A way of manufacturing

3. Working out time

4. Preservation of the environment

5. Profit

6. Conformity to the development program

7. The technical superiority

This method can be applied in the various image. So, criteria and projects

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