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To develop offers on change of structure of an investment portfolio.The general methods of expert estimations were developed within the limits of researches in
Forecasting areas. Their number concern, for example, a known method
- , a method of use of a matrix of the mark estimations which are turned off further
Through use of linear factors of weightiness by each variant. The central problem thus (and no means always it) appears Subjectivity of expert judgements.
The same lack basically is inherent also in a method of paired comparisons
Criteria in which criteria which should be at first are formulated
Then are ordered according to the scales given to it. At the heart of the paired
Comparisons the idea of streamlining of the factors having various weight lies.
Absence of a material for definition of scales is compensated by judgements
Experts to whom various criteria are offered for paired comparisons
Or the purposes. Here that two criteria are compared among themselves only is important or
Two purposes. On the basis of frequency of preferences and by means of arithmetic average
Deviation. To illustrate the given method, we will submit data in a kind Triangular matrix (tab. 2.1).
In each line of this matrix, beginning from above, numbers are written down
Corresponding criteria to which the preference is given. Comparison
It is made in the lines. At first the criterion 1 is compared to all the others,
Then the criterion 2 is in pairs compared to all the others etc. Summarizing Preferences, we receive a basis for definition of ranks.
Table 2.1
Example of an estimation of criteria
The purposes and criteria
it criterion in paired comparisons 1234567
Number of preferences
Rank
1. The sum of sales
2. A way of manufacturing
3. Working out time
4. Preservation of the environment
5. Profit
6. Conformity to the development program
7. The technical superiority
This method can be applied in the various image. So, criteria and projects
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