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III. Experiment and interpretation.
By way of illustration stated positions we will result some
Results which have been received during economic experiments,
Spent by the author in the Moscow State University in the spring of this year. Among other the examinee (70
) the following has been offered students of 1 course of economic faculty
Three lotteries are more low resulted. 1) will order these three lotteries on degree
Preferences (i.e. put figure 1 to the left of that lottery, which
It is represented to you to the most attractive, 2 - following on degree
Appeal, 3 - the least attractive:
___ And: $100 with probability 0.8 (80 %) - $10 (i.e. loss of $10) with probability
0.2 (20 %)
___ In: $150 with probability of $0.33 75 with probability 0.34 0 with probability
___ With: $200 with probability of $0.2 150 with probability of $0.2 100 with probability
$0.2 50 with probability 0.2 0 with probability 0.2
2) Proranzhirujte these three lotteries on risk degree, i.e. write in
To the table after figure 1 that from them which seems to you the most risky,
After figure 2 - following on risk degree, after 3 - the least brave:
1 - _________
The first initial, the second central the moments and a standard deviation
Lotteries are equal it=78, V=1936, (=44; it=75, V=3712,5, (=60.93; it=100, V=5000,
(=70.71, accordingly. Thus, it lotteries in terms
Dispersions increases from And to With, and the lottery In represents also
"Worsened" (with the reduced expected prize) disorder from a constant
A.Standartnaja's average lottery the theory assumes that individuals "like
Expected prize also "do not like" risk, i.e. preferences should converge to
To lottery In with different degree which depends on the form of function of utility.
However the majority of individuals (63 %) the most preferable have named a lottery
With (lotteries And and B 24.5 % and 12.5 %, accordingly have chosen). It would be possible
To explain to that individuals have unexpectedly appeared fans of risk
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