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Fig. 1. Dynamics of retail goods turnover and investments into a fixed capital

Apparently from table 1 and the drawing 1, the most essential recession in

Consumption has occurred in 1995, then consumption volume further It was practically stabilised at level of 90 percent from level of 1990.

Recession of consumption in 1995 has occurred against transition to more rigid

To the budgetary policy, refusal of direct issue financing of the budget. Consumption level stabilisation in 1996-1998 in essential degree External loans which have gradually replaced promoted Loans in the internal monetary market. As consequence - an external debt in 1996-1998 has grown more than for 25 percent. Simultaneously with it

Capital outflow (it, the information-analytical bulletin it12 has increased also

For January, 1999). Thus, external loans could not recover Economic activity to stimulate manufacture and consumption growth, and Have only allowed to prevent their further reduction.

Owing to first of all devaluation of rouble in the end of 1998, decrease Its purchasing capacity, the compelled transition in 1999 to even more

To the rigid budgetary policy and impossibility of the further massed external

Loans, during the current year it is necessary to expect the further reduction

Consumption (approximately for 11-12 percent). Along with it incompleteness Structural transformations, backwardness of market institutes will be Essentially to limit prospects of improvement economic Conjuncture and increases of business activity.

Estimation of 1999

The estimation of 1999 has special value in the light of recent specification

Goskomstat of the statistical data for 1997-1998 and also specifications

Statisticans of investments for the first quarter 1999. Besides, in the end of 1998

Year after deep recession in the middle of year in industrial production

Tendencies to growth were designated that in essential degree has affected and on

Dynamics of gross national product. In the beginning of 1999 the tendency of growth of industrial production

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