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Fig. 1. Dynamics of retail goods turnover and investments into a fixed capital
Apparently from table 1 and the drawing 1, the most essential recession in
Consumption has occurred in 1995, then consumption volume further
It was practically stabilised at level of 90 percent from level of 1990.
Recession of consumption in 1995 has occurred against transition to more rigid
To the budgetary policy, refusal of direct issue financing of the budget.
Consumption level stabilisation in 1996-1998 in essential degree
External loans which have gradually replaced promoted
Loans in the internal monetary market. As consequence - an external debt in
1996-1998 has grown more than for 25 percent. Simultaneously with it
Capital outflow (it, the information-analytical bulletin it12 has increased also
For January, 1999). Thus, external loans could not recover
Economic activity to stimulate manufacture and consumption growth, and
Have only allowed to prevent their further reduction.
Owing to first of all devaluation of rouble in the end of 1998, decrease
Its purchasing capacity, the compelled transition in 1999 to even more
To the rigid budgetary policy and impossibility of the further massed external
Loans, during the current year it is necessary to expect the further reduction
Consumption (approximately for 11-12 percent). Along with it incompleteness
Structural transformations, backwardness of market institutes will be
Essentially to limit prospects of improvement economic
Conjuncture and increases of business activity.
Estimation of 1999
The estimation of 1999 has special value in the light of recent specification
Goskomstat of the statistical data for 1997-1998 and also specifications
Statisticans of investments for the first quarter 1999. Besides, in the end of 1998
Year after deep recession in the middle of year in industrial production
Tendencies to growth were designated that in essential degree has affected and on
Dynamics of gross national product. In the beginning of 1999 the tendency of growth of industrial production
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