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More widely possibility of expansion of manufacture and productivity increase
Work at the expense of increase of efficiency of the available personnel, that already
Possibilities for additional hiring of a labour and the more possibly
"Revival without new workplaces".
Each of the previous scenarios was based on the optimistic
Assumptions of the beginning of economic growth. However today there is all
It is more than doubts about it. It is quite probable that Russian economy,
Despite the separate centres of growth, can "hang" between the crisis
The period of the past and revival in the future. Gross national product changes can fluctuate
Around 1 % in annual calculation, and positive changes in productivity
Work will appear languid. Clearly that in this case creation of new workers
Places it is problematic. Struggle of many employers for an economic survival
Will push them to optimisation of number of the personnel for the sake of restraint
Productivity falling. Under the threat of liquidation there will be millions workers
Places. Number of the unemployed will increase, and its level can reach 20-24 %.
Restraint of dismissals during this period will turn back decline of productivity
2.3 Other external deterrents
Speed from which employment expansion follows the economic
Revival, depends not only on a macroeconomic conjuncture, but also from
Parametres of the offer of a labour are defined, first of all,
Demographic dynamics, migratory mobility of the population and
Socio-economic factors. So, pressure of youth, for the first time
Entering on a labour market in job search, can block volumes
Generated workplaces, will complicate not only "a problem of the first job", but also
Will reduce potential possibilities of returning to employment of the unemployed
Citizens. The recession period, that is first half 90th years, has coincided with a phase
Decrease it a population of able-bodied age. However in
The next years "the demographic wave" will be characterised
The opposite tendency. During 1997-2000it. Able-bodied population
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