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One of possible scenarios of economic development not only on
The next years, but also in more remote prospect there will be a preservation in that
Or other scale of political confrontation between various forces,
Uncertainty concerning the future political-economical device
The countries, instability of the legislation (in Application tables this scenario
It is characterised as "inertial"). Substantial improvement investment
The climate in such conditions should not be expected. A consequence of it can become
Lines of confederation will be distinctly shown. In these conditions it is possible
To expect the further increase in rupture between levels of development of the separate
Regions, social groups. The economy will have still
Export-raw orientation with low level of the internal
Consumption, big enough balance of trading balance (from 15 to 25
Billions dollars) and unwillingness of investors to put up money in the Russian
Economy that will be accompanied still by export of the capital from the country.
Though potentially in such conditions economic growth will be possible also, and
Growth of investments, and consumption growth, however their rates will not exceed
Ones and a half-two and a half percent a year. It will mean that the present
Rupture between a level of development of Russia and the countries of other world at the best
Will not increase, any rapprochement, integration of Russia into community of the developed
The capitalist states (not only economic, but also political and
Cultural) it is not necessary to expect. Russia is not able to carry out
The obligations to creditors, influence of the country on the world political
To arena will weaken.
It is obvious that the decision of problems facing to the country probably only in
Conditions of economic growth, which on an extent at least
One and a half-two tens years should have steady character. Rates of increase
The Russian economy during this period should exceed essentially
Capital outflow, the profit received from the foreign trade activity,
Home market scales, resource potential, at Russia are all
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