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1999 the turn of retail trade will be reduced not less than to 10 percent (Its decrease for 11-13 percent) is more probable. It accordingly
Will define also dynamics of total amount of final consumption of house economy,
Which will be reduced following the results of a year approximately in the same proportion.
40-44 percentage growth of consumer prices predicted till the end of the year on
The goods and services (at the rate of December, 1999 by December, 1998) will cause
Mid-annual change of a consumer price index which will make
Approximately 86-87 percent. Considering that a certain part of consumption
By the population of the goods and services becomes covered at the expense of consumption of production,
Made in personal part-time farms, it for the final
Consumption by the population of the goods and services will be slightly more low, but no more than
On 10-12 points. Thereby nominal volume of final consumption of the goods
And services by the population in 1999 will make at least 2315-2320 billion
Roubles (in comparison with 1507 billion roubles in 1998).
Look-ahead calculations on other elements of final use of gross national product
Allow to predict its nominal volume for 1999 in 4280-4330
Billions roubles that essentially above, accepted in the budget for 1998.
Simultaneously with it the forecast of real change of gross national product on a method of the final
Use does not allow to make a conclusion about possibility of growth of gross national product in 1999
To year. Its stabilisation is possible provided that the gain of stocks will make
Order of 2.5 percent of gross national product that is rather problematic under a condition, if in
Second half of year more rigid monetary policy will be spent.
Is more probable about 3 percentage slump in production of gross national product.
On the other hand, at preservation of developed dynamics of the industrial
Manufacture and investment activity, till the end of the year it would be possible
To expect stabilisation of volumes of output of gross national product at level of last year or, in
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