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Coming to the end decade of the economic reforms which have not called the expected
Launch of open unemployment, has generated opinion on somebody "a Russian" way,
Which if has created set of social and economic problems of the transitive
The period, at least, has allowed to keep a labour market in the relative
Balance. On this basis the conclusion that if quite often becomes in
The period of economic recession managed to be reached the compromise between inflation and
Unemployment, at a stage of expected economic revival a labour market
Especially remains to one of the least problematic spheres: the economic
Growth will allow to neutralise a problem of a regularity of payment of wages,
And rather small volumes of open unemployment will be automatically
Such vision of succession of events looks doubtful. That
To understand that has occurred in recession and that it is possible to expect after the beginning
Economic revival, we will try to construct some scenarios,
Based on enough simple economic dependences. Described more low
At all it is not necessary to consider scenarios as look-ahead estimations. Resulted
Calculations are, more likely, an estimation-prevention.
2.1 Recession in manufacture and employment
Slump in production, as a rule, is accompanied by formation
Relative labour redundancy, as for manufacture smaller
Quantities of production (services) smaller number of workers is required also, and,
Hence, and workplaces.
If at reduction of gross national product labour productivity does not decrease, then
Number of the occupied decreases to the size corresponding "economically
To the set demand ". A difference between number economically active
The population and "economically set" demand makes "the superfluous" worker
Force. Thus the volume of a "superfluous" labour, as a rule, corresponds
Labour productivity also decreases, a difference between number
Really occupied and "economically set demand" makes size
"Economically not defensible employment", accumulated directly on
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