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Essential shifts regarding radical re-structuring of an external debt
The countries (including write-offs of a part of a debt of the former USSR) hardly it is possible
To expect before presidential election of 2000. Till this time Russia will be
Most likely "on a minimum" to carry out of the obligations to the external
Creditors, paying no more than half from the obligations, as a matter of fact
To be in a status of a technical default. Thus volume gold and exchange
Reserves both in 1999, and in first half of 2000, will remain on
Level of the end of 1998, its insignificant growth (on 1-2 billion is possible
Dollars). Really, in case of hypothetically possible more
Essential gain of reserves, pressure upon Russia from outside creditors
Will increase, being accompanied by complications of negotiating process and
Corresponding attempts to force the government to increase volumes
Service and repayment of an external debt. Decrease in level of reserves will be
To raise possibility of successful speculative attack to rouble (potential for
Which to the middle of 1999 has increased in connection with fast growth of the rests
Means of banks for a correspondent abacus in the Central Bank). Volume maintenance
Reserves at current level will cause preservation of the flowing
Equilibrium status, i.e. balance preservation between outflow of the capital,
Payments on an external debt and inflow of currency to the country.
Recession in consumption of house economy will stop. In 2000 follows
To expect its increase in comparison with 1999 not less than for 2 percent.
In many respects it will be caused by stabilisation of monthly average level
Consumption in 1999, instead of qualitative changes on the consumer
The market in 2000. At the same time in 2000 hardly it is possible to expect revival
Investment activity. As a result volume of a total internal product in
To 2000 remains approximately at level of 1999 - potentially possible
Its changes both towards increase, and towards reduction, will be
To be in limits of a statistical error.
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