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Extent of all period the country will be compelled to reduce the budget with the primary

Proficiency in some percent of gross national product. In these conditions till the end of the first

Decades of a next century annual volumes of payments on an external debt not Will exceed 8-9 billion dollars a year. It a little above, than volume

Percentage payments (both on the Russian debt, and on a debt of the former USSR),

So next decade Russia can start more actively to

To repayment of the basic debt. At the given scenario if it will not be written off

Any part of a debt of the former USSR, considering potentially possible

Refinancing of a part of a debt, its general volume will remain approximately on

Level existing now, considering potentially possible new External loans. Taking into consideration predicted rates of increase

Gross national product, by 2010 will make the relation of an external debt to gross national product less than 40 percent

Against an order of 90 percent 1999-2000 Potentially possible volumes Debt service should become a starting point for negotiations about Long-term re-structuring of an external debt of the country.

At performance specified above conditions of the given scenario (in tables

Applications it is designated as "active"), since 2003 inflation not Will exceed 10 percent year. Thus, considering expected increase Inflow of currency to the country, special value will have its politician Sterilisations, release of securities which would promote restriction To issue and activity restoration in the financial markets.

THE APPLICATION

Table 1. Variants of a statistical estimation of some macroeconomic Indicators in 1999-2000

1 it.

2 it.

1 it.

2 it.

Total internal product, billion rbl.

Total internal product, gain to before. To year, %

-3,3

-0,1

0,2

-2,2 including:

Expenses on final consumption

-9,1

-9,4

0,3

0,2 house economy

-11,0

-11,5

2,8

2,4 state organisations

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