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It is necessary for equation to lower deficiency of the federal budget sharply,

To lower volume of loans, as only one administrative efforts on

To prevention of flowing off of capital from the country will be a success hardly.

Drawing 3 shows presence enough stable relation between deficiency

The budget and volume taken out from capitalist countries. The budgeted deficit was that

More than more capital it was taken out from the country. And on the contrary - than it is more

There was a budgeted deficit, the more capital flowed away from the Russian economy.

Export of the capital from the country means corresponding reduction of the internal

Savings, limits possibilities of increase of investment activity, Reduces prospects of economic growth. The decision of essential problems,

Facing to the country it is impossible in the conditions of falling volumes of output.

Fig. 3. Capital export (the top curve) and deficiency of the federal budget in

1996-1998 (billions dollars)

Thus, creation of conditions promoting, that the capital Remained in Russia - a unique possible way of achievement Macroeconomic stabilisation and transition to economy growth. Besides

Obvious problem of sharp decrease in budgetary deficiency, creation is necessary

Stable and clear "game rules", acceleration of structural reforms, creation Corresponding market institutes.

Now after considerable reduction of volumes of import, The rouble called by devaluation, there were signs of that in 1999 Balance of the bill on current operations again signs steadily positive

Values. In this situation it is especially important to avoid temptation to return to

To practice of a covering of internal deficiency at the expense of external proficiency. As

Follows from told above, if macroeconomic stabilisation by such way Also it will be reached, it will not carry steady character.

Fund "Bureau of the economic analysis"

103009 Moscow, Small Gnezdnikovsky lane, 4,

Bodies.(095 937-67-50 fax (095 937-67-53

e-mail: bureau@beap.dol.ru

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