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The low prices for energy carriers in the world markets and probable further them
Decrease. This circumstance will make also negative impact as on
Level of incomes of the federal budget, and on a status of the balance of payments
The given reasons are the general for all from considered scenarios
The macroeconomic policy. Their further detailed elaboration and differentiation
It is reduced to the following.
The scenario 1 - "Inertial"
It is supposed that in 1999-2003 the economy develops in
Conformity with "the inertia" typed during the previous development. Development
Real sector on the former it is characterised by domination power raw
And the several other eksporto-focused sectors of economy
(Metallurgy, the chemical industry). The macroeconomic policy in it
Case it is characterised by that the state does not try (or it appears
Incapable) essentially to correct a state of affairs as in area
Taxation, and executions of an account part of the budget. Attempts
Reforming of a budgetary policy are carried out within the limits of the existing
Concepts, by activization of administrative efforts on increase
Collectings of taxes from sector of the enterprises. The decision of more labour-consuming problem
On transferring of an essential part of tax burden on the final
The consumer, on physical persons, (in particular on collecting increase
Surtax) it is periodically postponed.
Calculations and the analysis show that in the given scenario level of incomes
The federal budget in intermediate term prospect will remain at level
9-10 percent of gross national product.
In the given scenario also it is supposed that the state expresses
Readiness to pay an external debt, however state possibilities rather
Are limited. And, these restrictions arise not only from outside the budget,
But also from outside the balance of payments. Calculations show that at the such
Variant of possibility of the state regarding repayment and service external
Debt in 1999-2003 at the best will be limited by volumes in 3-4
Billion dollars of annual payments. Considering that in 1999-2003
Annual volumes of payments on an external debt make from 14 to 19 billion
Dollars (see table 3) at Russia the delayed will collect
Debts, as reception of the new credits comparable to volumes
The delayed debts hardly will be possible.
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