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Possible variants of the development, the caused subjects or other combination
Tools of a macroeconomic policy, it is great enough, however them
The comparative analysis allows to reject obviously unrealistic and
To define two-three scenarios which would respond as development realities
Economic, and to the Russian possibilities.
The general for all variants of development of the Russian economy is that in
The intermediate term prospect hardly can count on achievement of the high
Rates of economic growth. The future development of economy of such country as
Russia, considering its geographical position, and also inherited
Manufacture structure it will be defined most likely by dynamics of development
Real sector, appreciably - the industries, while
Rapid development of sector of services the next years will be hardly possible.
The analysis shows that dynamics of a total internal product will be
It is close enough to dynamics of industrial production.
At the same time, to count on fast rates of increase of the industrial
Manufactures in 1999-2003 will be hardly realistic. In table 1
The industrial production structure in 1991-1998, reflecting is resulted
Those structural changes which have occurred during reforms under influence
As a first approximation, for convenience of the analysis as a part of the Russian
The industry can allocate three aggregated groups of branches, namely -
Power sector, the sector focused on manufacture
Consumer goods (where first of all concern easy and food
The industry) and other branches (mainly to branch overworking
Forecasts of development of economic for immediate prospects, and also
Possibilities of the countries-exporters of power resources, testify that
Demand for the Russian energy carriers essentially will not increase. On the world
The market of power resources there is a powerful competition, so possibilities
Fast growth of the Russian export of energy carriers are rather limited.
Internal demand for power resources too will increase hardly
Advancing rates. Thus, look-ahead dynamics of manufacture
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