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To considerable distortions at an estimation of dynamics of incomes and population savings.

1 Sum of the saved up cash currency estimated on it makes

About 25 billion dollars. The estimation of the Central Bank of Russia switches on the cash in 40 billion dollars

Currency in an enterprise turn. An estimation received on the basis of the bank

The population interrogation, the equal 60-70 billion dollars, is represented overestimated,

As assumes that superrich (2 % of the population) hold 50-60 billion Dollars cash, without involving them in a shadow turn.

Fund "Bureau of the economic analysis"

103009 Moscow, Small Gnezdnikovsky lane, 4,

Bodies.(095 937-6750 fax (095 937-6753

E-mail: bureau@beap.dol.ru

The information-analytical bulletin

it 9

September, 1998

About an estimation of development of an economic situation in Russia

In 1998-1999

Decisions on public debt "re-structuring", 90-day Moratoriums, rouble devaluation, government resignation have led essentially New situation in the country, to a sharp aggravation of an economic crisis, Destabilizations of political conditions. Full loss of trust to the state As from outside foreign, and domestic investors, devaluation National currency, growth of social intensity - a reality, with which

It is necessary to be considered to the new government. Degree of destabilization of the financial

The markets and negative tendencies in real sector it is possible to characterise as

The serious crisis beginning (Schedules see). To stabilise a situation in the shortest

Time - a problem of exclusive difficulty.

Uncertainty of a situation essentially complicates now

Quantitative estimation of results of development of economy in 1998 and prospects on

1999. Calculations show that devaluation of a nominal rate of rouble to Level below 14-16 roubles for dollar will perniciously affect economy. Level

The prices in 14-16 roubles for dollar it is possible to consider maximum permissible for

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