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Energy carriers, the next will be constantly exposed to the raised risk Devaluations of national currency.
Nevertheless, the Government probably will manage to avoid the new financial
Shocks. Despite expected difficulties with budget execution, it will be
To be reduced with small primary proficiency. Budgeted deficit total amount in
Force of small actual volumes of repayment of a public debt can
To be limited by 3 percent of gross national product. Besides, after devaluation of rouble and
Landslide reduction of import restoration of its volumes will go extremely
Slow rates. It will allow to avoid problems and with the balance of payments
(Financial and economic crisis of 1998 became a reality in many respects
Thanks to that on chronic internal imbalance of economy
The countries, a budgeted deficit, imbalance external was imposed also -
Deterioration of the balance of payments of the country).
Potentially growth of volumes of investments in the given scenario will be possible not
Before 2002. However, rates of increase in volumes invested in economy
Means will be low and to be provided basically at the expense of the internal
Sources. The essential terminator for increase of the investment
Activity there will be not so much absence corresponding macroeconomic
Conditions how much backwardness of legal system, weak bank system.
Weakness of bank system, and also sector of the enterprises, become the radical
The reason of budgetary crisis of 1998, will limit still
Economic development of the country.
Since 2001 it will be possible to count on some increase
Level of a monetization of economy that will allow to raise a collecting some
Taxes. However, this increase will not have the considerable sizes.
Volume of an external debt, having reached 87-88 percent from gross national product in 1999 in
The best case will remain approximately at the same level, in the worst
Variant - can raise on 7-10 points. In these conditions of Russia
It will be almost impossible to return on the world financial markets,
As the credit rating of the country will remain on the lowest.
Revival of home market of any traded financial tools,
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