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Bills on current operations becomes an indispensable condition of accumulation
Currency reserves. By calculations, since 2000 of balance of the bill of the flowing
Operations should make 15-20 billion dollars.
Calculations show that since 2000 Russia is able
To pay to external creditors from 11 to 13 billion dollars annually. On
It is comparable size to volume of repayment and service of the Russian part
External debt, and also percentage payments on a debt of the former USSR. In the given
Scenarios there is a real possibility to achieve core re-structuring
Bodies of a debt of the former USSR. Calculations also show that in the given scenario
Volumes of currency reserves of the country, despite payment on a debt will be
Steadily to grow. In these conditions there will be a real possibility of the new
Loans in the world financial markets and at the international financial
The organisations, however, as appears from the analysis of the look-ahead data, they already will be
Are not necessary (probably, it is required insignificant volumes of new loans -
Order of 2-3 billion dollars in a transition period of 1999-2000. In
The given scenario the external debt starts to be reduced steadily (from 87 percent
Gross national product per 1999 to 58 percent of gross national product in 2003).
At the given variant of succession of events rates of inflation appear
Essentially above, than in the previous scenarios that is caused by growth
Currency reserves of the country and currency purchase by the monetary authorities for payments
On external debts. Rates of inflation can be lowered under condition of release
The monetary authorities or the government of any new traded financial
The tools sterilising effect of inflow of a foreign currency in the country. In
The given scenario it becomes quite real, no less than a little
- in comparison with the previous variants inflow of straight lines foreign
Investments (which, however, appear not too considerable on
Calculations also show that import reduction can impulse
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