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To operations, however, it will be slightly more low, than in the previous variant -
Order of 7-9 billion dollars.
Absence of payments on an external debt will allow not only to support
Level of the international reserves at constant level, but also even a little them
To increase. And it can occur even in the conditions of reduction of volumes
Foreign currency inflow. It is natural that in the given scenario to count
Investments it is not necessary.
Calculations, show that at the given variant rates of increase of monetary weight and
Inflations appear slightly more low, than in the first scenario, however, it
Distinction is not represented essential. An annual gain of volumes of the monetary
Weights per 1999-2003 it is estimated within 20-30 percent. It in
To certain measure it is caused by lower demand for money owing to
Deeper slump in production in 1999-2000 that is connected with more
Low external demand, potential restrictions which can
To arise in relation to the Russian exporters.
The volume of an external debt of the federal government can come nearer to
To mark in 100 percent of gross national product in 2000 also will fluctuate about this
Marks during all considered period. Total amount
Public debt (switching on debts of local authorities, and also
The internal debt) will steadily exceed volume of annual gross national product of the country.
Freezing of expenses on service of an external debt will allow
To the state to spend it is more than means for internal needs - potential
Absence of pressure upon the government from outside the international financial
The organisations in the given scenario most likely will define raised on
To comparison with the previous variant level state not percentage
Expenses. On the one hand it will allow to raise the internal slightly
Demand, first of all owing to some growth of incomes of workers
Budgetary sphere, however, the general level of incomes of the population in the real
Expression practically will not increase. It will be saved and existing structure
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