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The special alarm of analysts is called by that as a result of the mutual Imposings specified above factors, and also fast growth of import, balance Bills on current operations in Russia tends to reduction. More That, considering adverse for Russia a foreign trade conjuncture, There were fears that in 1998 of balance of the bill of current operations Can become negative that, in turn, can create the serious
Pressure upon rouble. Acknowledgement to that is Goskomstat data about external
To trade for the January-February, testifying to sharp reduction of balance
Trading balance which for two months has made all 0.9 billion
Dollars against 4.7 billion dollars in January-February of last year. At
It, in comparison with previous year, in January import growth has made 34 (!)
Percent, and for January-February over 19 percent. The export were reduced
Gas deliveries, despite growth of physical volumes of export of oil in the monetary
Expression its export was reduced. According to Goskomstat remain high
Rates of increase of import practical on all commodity groups. Under a condition
Till the end of the year, it is possible to expect preservation of the specified tendencies that
The foreign trade balance will sharply be reduced, having made as a result of 6-7 billion
Dollars (against almost 20 billion in 1997). It means that balance
Bills on current operations in 1998 it can really appear
Negative and to make an order-7--8 billion dollars.
It is necessary to underline especially that a number of indicators of the balance of payments
Grows out of estimations and additional calculations. The analysis of the statistical
Bases of the balance of payments of Russia during the last years testifies that
Its some indicators received by expert it, demand
Additional judgement. First of all it concerns import statistics
The foreign trade statistics and the balance of payments
As basis of the data about foreign trade volumes the customs statistics serves.
At the same time it is well-known that the data of customs statistics does not consider
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