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Positive balance on current operations (in 11-12 billion dollars) these
Volumes will be obviously insufficiently for replenishment of reserves. Their gain can
To begin not earlier than 2001.
Though in the given variant inflation theoretically can be limited 30
In percent in 2000-2003, rather low rates of increase of the prices not
Will promote manufacture growth (in 1999 inflation can
To make an order of 75-80 percent). Level of a monetization of economy even more
Will go down in 1999 and will remain almost invariable in
The next years. Rates of increase of monetary weight will make in 1999-2003 from
24 to 34 percent a year.
In the given scenario growth of manufacture also will be possible after 2000, but
Its rates will be in limits of a statistical error of measurements.
Moreover the similar scenario hardly can be considered as the scenario
Steady growth as the status of the Russian economy will be
Still to be defined by a conjuncture of the world markets of power resources.
The state consumption remains at invariable level, consumption
The population owing to preservation of low level of incomes and "frozen"
Structures of distribution of incomes will be constrained by internal demand. As a result
Home market will be in a stagnation status, development the business
Activity it will be braked both the general status of the market, and absence
Investment activity in the given variant also will remain on
Low level. Taking into account progressing ageing of a fixed capital
Potential growth of manufacture will be possible in essential degree for
The bill of increase of loading of operating capacities. Dynamics of real sector
It will be characterised by recession in 1999, relative stabilisation
Volumes of output in 2000-2001 and the lowest rates of increase in
The next years (about one percent) which can follow
New wave of recession. The short-term period of growth will be mainly
It is caused by dynamics of the eksporto-focused sector of economy. Russia,
Remaining in the strongest dependence on a conjuncture of the world prices on
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