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To the objective reasons, having in view of the general tendencies of development of the transitive
Economy, and on subjective - proceeding from already accepted decisions. To
Subjective factors should carry and possibility of reception of credits from
The international financial organisations, prospects of re-structuring of the external
The summer of 1998 the Government had been developed the intermediate term program of a budgetary policy, ("the Basic directions of a budgetary policy for 1999 and for the period till 2001"), the basic accent in which became on essential decrease in a budgeted deficit beginning since 1999. The course on budgeted deficit decrease proves to be true also the budget project for 1999, the developed new structure of an office. It naturally predetermines possible variants of a state policy of direct influence on a final demand from outside the states (essentially limiting these possibilities).
The general orientation of a monetary and credit policy will be appreciably
To be caused by results of realisation of a nalogovo-budgetary policy, and also
The decisions accepted by directly monetary authorities in a part
Re-structurings of bank system. A recent collapse of the Russian financial
The markets, transition of financial crisis in the economic has been caused as
Presence of fundamental problems, and credibility gap in conditions all
Fuller integration of Russia into economic. Hopes of achievement
Economic growth before parliamentary and presidential election
Have practically disappeared. The analysis shows that, considering all available
Restrictive factors, visible growth of manufacture (which rates of increase
Exceed size of a statistical error) most likely it is possible only in
Next millenium. Nevertheless, despite presence of the objective
Tendencies of development of transitive Russian economy, the various are possible
The variants of economic development depending on a number of basic decisions,
Which the Government should accept.
1. A general characteristic of possible macroeconomic scenarios.
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