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Import of the goods
Balance of trading balance
Mid-annual course, rbl. / dollars
The scenario 2 - Temporary refusal of service of an external debt
In spite of the fact that in the previous "inertial" scenario it is supposed,
That Russia tries to carry out as far as possible of the obligations before
External creditors, as a matter of fact she behaves as the bankrupt, as the real
Possibilities of performance of promissory notes appear essentially more low
Obligations. Thus, it is natural to consider the scenario, at which
The country for a while officially refuses obligations on external debts,
Trying to create within several years conditions for economy lifting, with
That through three-four years to renew payments on external debts.
Really, theoretically, in this case, it would be possible to count
That easing of debt loading would allow to reduce by the budget
Requirement for new extra resources to lower inflation, interest rates,
To raise investment activity and to pass to the steady economic
To growth. However, also it is logical to admit, what is it will simply postpone necessity
Radical reforms in budgetary sphere and in many respects given scenario will be similar
On the previous.
The macroeconomic policy will be characterised still by that
The state will aspire to improve a situation in budgetary sphere in frameworks
Existing paradigm. The analysis, however, shows that at the given variant
The macroeconomic policy probably decrease in volumes foreign trade
Turn, and more considerable in comparison with an inertial variant. At
It reduction as export, and import (will be observed at
"Optimistic" outcome, i.e. "soft" reaction of the world community on
The announcement Russia a sovereign default). Though the balance of payments will be, as well as
In the first scenario to be reduced with positive value of balance on the flowing
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