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Budgetary crisis at the expense of more rigid budgetary policy, acceptance of measures on
To reduction of volumes of outflow of the capital from the country (and, not only
Administrative), to increase of tax discipline, responsibility increase
For non-payment of taxes. These measures are carried out since 2000 (at the best -
From second half of 1999), considering that results of 1999 already in
Considerable degree are predetermined by the declared decisions, including - in
Tax policy areas. In the given scenario also it is supposed that with
2000 Russia passes to a policy of gradual reduction external
Debt. An indispensable condition of it is working out and acceptance
The realistic budget with primary proficiency in some percent of gross national product. It
Should allow to agree with the international financial organisations,
Therefore there is a possibility of re-structuring of an external debt, and
Also receptions of new credits that can improve the macroeconomic
Indicators to lower inflation, to raise a share of savings in gross national product.
In all three of the considered scenarios it is supposed that the government
And the monetary authorities are not focused on the "compelled" carrying out of the populist
The proinflationary policy, though such variant of economic development
It is not necessary to exclude (especially - for 1999). Thus, however, it is possible
To assume what to consider such scenario in intermediate term prospect
It is represented inexpedient. Most likely, after the period of the high
Inflations if that it will be valid to take place in case of the further
Progressing deterioration of financial balance of the state together with
The balance of payments, the Government will be rather soon compelled to pass to
To "active" variant, but at other standard of price and volumes of output.
Other alternative of an exit from hypothetically admissible mode of the high
Inflations can switch on qualitative changes in the political-economical
The device of Russia which quantitative estimation is extremely inconvenient.
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