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(Conditionally - no more than 3-4 billion dollars a year). Russia in the given variant
It appears obviously incapable to carry out of the obligations to the external
Creditors in full, but tries in process of possibilities to pay
Part of an external debt, agreeing with creditors, re-structuring the remaining
Its volumes of payments which it is not possible to repay and serve. Preservation
Concerning a low share of incomes of the state (budget) in gross national product, and
Accordingly, impossibility of financing of public sector of economy
Will serve one of the factors promoting preservation developed
Structures of distribution of incomes of the population of the country and the low internal
The second scenario means official refusal of debt service (on
To extreme measure the next three-four years) and attempt to start to pay off with
On political statements that Russia will continue payments on
To external debt consideration of this scenario expediently in the sense that
Problems with debt service (even if to assume that to the Government in
1999 will manage to reach the agreement with the international financial
The organisations about granting of new loans) can arise again in 2000 and
The next years. In these conditions (a sovereign default) financing
Budgeted deficit also it is reduced to search of internal sources, big, than
In the first scenario, country isolation on international scene, decrease
The foreign trade turnover.
The nalogovo-budgetary policy in comparison with the first scenario remains
Almost invariable - time easing of debt burden not
Stimulates activity of the state on rationalisation of the state
Expenses and to increase of a collecting of taxes, decrease and structure change
The State expenditure. It will mean, in particular, that in the country
The developed non-uniform structure of distribution of incomes will be saved.
At last, the third scenario (the scenario of an "active" policy) means
Essential advancement regarding structural reforms, overcoming attempt
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