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Tags: webclips icons, icons of the 50's, microsoft icons, icons for network, on off switch icon

(Conditionally - no more than 3-4 billion dollars a year). Russia in the given variant

It appears obviously incapable to carry out of the obligations to the external

Creditors in full, but tries in process of possibilities to pay

Part of an external debt, agreeing with creditors, re-structuring the remaining

Its volumes of payments which it is not possible to repay and serve. Preservation

Concerning a low share of incomes of the state (budget) in gross national product, and

Accordingly, impossibility of financing of public sector of economy Will serve one of the factors promoting preservation developed

Structures of distribution of incomes of the population of the country and the low internal

Demand.

The second scenario means official refusal of debt service (on

To extreme measure the next three-four years) and attempt to start to pay off with

On political statements that Russia will continue payments on

To external debt consideration of this scenario expediently in the sense that

Problems with debt service (even if to assume that to the Government in 1999 will manage to reach the agreement with the international financial The organisations about granting of new loans) can arise again in 2000 and The next years. In these conditions (a sovereign default) financing Budgeted deficit also it is reduced to search of internal sources, big, than In the first scenario, country isolation on international scene, decrease The foreign trade turnover.

The nalogovo-budgetary policy in comparison with the first scenario remains

Almost invariable - time easing of debt burden not Stimulates activity of the state on rationalisation of the state

Expenses and to increase of a collecting of taxes, decrease and structure change

The State expenditure. It will mean, in particular, that in the country

The developed non-uniform structure of distribution of incomes will be saved.

At last, the third scenario (the scenario of an "active" policy) means Essential advancement regarding structural reforms, overcoming attempt

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