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The information-analytical bulletin
Dynamics of industrial production: current tendencies and prospects
Statistical data testifies that during the fourth
Quarter 1998 the tendency of growth of industrial production was designated.
In December, 1998 the volume of release of an industrial output was above
September level almost for 18 percent. Recession of volumes of output in
January, 1999 obviously is in limits of borders of the usual seasonal
Fluctuations. With the account of an exception of influence of seasonal prevalence, according to Goskomstat,
Industrial output in January, 1999 was saved approximately on
Level of December, 1998.
At interpretation of the data it is not necessary to forget about industrial production,
That in September of last year industrial output manufacture has decreased
To the lowest level for all period of reforms. And, most intensively
Manufacture was reduced from May till September, 1998 (fig. 1). As a whole
Level of total amount of manufacture of an industrial output in January, 1999
For the present remains below level of January of last year almost for 5 percent.
Nevertheless, intensive growth of industrial production in the fourth
Quarter of last year gives the grounds for judgements that as a result
Devaluations of rouble and of some measures on support of the home producer,
Undertaken by the government in the autumn, the national economy in 1999 can leave
On the new level of development characterised by activization of processes
Rouble devaluation. In this connection the essential interest represents the answer on
Question on that, the current trend of growth industrial is how much steady
The manufactures, what factors promoted it, whether they will stimulate
Industrial dynamics and in immediate prospects.
Among industries it is conditionally possible to allocate some groups,
Classified on rates of dynamics. One group branches make, rates
Changes of volumes of output in which were obviously below averages on
The industries. It includes light industry, the food-processing industry,
Nonferrous metallurgy. Other group can be made of branches with
Rates of increase considerably above averages on the industry. First of all
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