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The information-analytical bulletin

it 13

February, 1999

Dynamics of industrial production: current tendencies and prospects

Statistical data testifies that during the fourth Quarter 1998 the tendency of growth of industrial production was designated. In December, 1998 the volume of release of an industrial output was above September level almost for 18 percent. Recession of volumes of output in January, 1999 obviously is in limits of borders of the usual seasonal

Fluctuations. With the account of an exception of influence of seasonal prevalence, according to Goskomstat,

Industrial output in January, 1999 was saved approximately on Level of December, 1998.

At interpretation of the data it is not necessary to forget about industrial production,

That in September of last year industrial output manufacture has decreased To the lowest level for all period of reforms. And, most intensively Manufacture was reduced from May till September, 1998 (fig. 1). As a whole

Level of total amount of manufacture of an industrial output in January, 1999

For the present remains below level of January of last year almost for 5 percent.

Drawing 1.

Nevertheless, intensive growth of industrial production in the fourth Quarter of last year gives the grounds for judgements that as a result Devaluations of rouble and of some measures on support of the home producer,

Undertaken by the government in the autumn, the national economy in 1999 can leave

On the new level of development characterised by activization of processes

Rouble devaluation. In this connection the essential interest represents the answer on

Question on that, the current trend of growth industrial is how much steady The manufactures, what factors promoted it, whether they will stimulate Industrial dynamics and in immediate prospects.

Among industries it is conditionally possible to allocate some groups, Classified on rates of dynamics. One group branches make, rates Changes of volumes of output in which were obviously below averages on The industries. It includes light industry, the food-processing industry, Nonferrous metallurgy. Other group can be made of branches with Rates of increase considerably above averages on the industry. First of all

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