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Present status of the Russian economy. However already in these conditions it is possible

To expect approximately 100 percentage inflations following the results of 1998 (under a condition

Non-admission of poor rouble issue). In essence it means that

Following the results of 1998 there will be 25-30 % devaluation (real) rouble exchange rate. In

The application (table 1) basic macroeconomic indicators are presented, National economies characterising development at the scenario defined Economic situation for September, 11th. Calculations show that as in 1998, And in 1999 the country will face a new wave of slump in production in

Real sector. Decrease in real volume of gross national product in 1998 can exceed

6 %, and in 1999 - 5 %. Decrease in final consumption of house economy will make

As in 1998 - 1999 of an order of 6 % for every year.

At a course below 14-16 roubles for dollar danger essentially increases Uncontrollable rise in prices, prompt falling of consumption and Manufactures, the further depreciation of national currency. Sharp Import reduction, sharp growth of consumer prices will be objectively

To demand increase in nominal incomes of the population, and consequently and

Monetary weight (any government hardly can resist to it

To pressure). In a case of considerable release of money in the reference, repayments

The state debts (including under the salary) at the expense of the poor Issue reserves, the rise in prices can appear uncontrollable. It will be

To be urged on by prompt falling of a rouble exchange rate, which in conditions

The developed extremely non-uniform structure of distribution of incomes will be

To be exposed to more and more strong pressure of from outside increasing rouble

Weights. It, in turn, will urge on a rise in prices, level decrease


Now various variants of an overcoming the crisis are discussed: from

Introductions of measures of direct administration to a mode of the most severe economy,

Reductions of the State expenditure, bindings of a rouble exchange rate to a basket of the firm

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