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Present status of the Russian economy. However already in these conditions it is possible
To expect approximately 100 percentage inflations following the results of 1998 (under a condition
Non-admission of poor rouble issue). In essence it means that
Following the results of 1998 there will be 25-30 % devaluation (real) rouble exchange rate. In
The application (table 1) basic macroeconomic indicators are presented,
National economies characterising development at the scenario defined
Economic situation for September, 11th. Calculations show that as in 1998,
And in 1999 the country will face a new wave of slump in production in
Real sector. Decrease in real volume of gross national product in 1998 can exceed
6 %, and in 1999 - 5 %. Decrease in final consumption of house economy will make
As in 1998 - 1999 of an order of 6 % for every year.
At a course below 14-16 roubles for dollar danger essentially increases
Uncontrollable rise in prices, prompt falling of consumption and
Manufactures, the further depreciation of national currency. Sharp
Import reduction, sharp growth of consumer prices will be objectively
To demand increase in nominal incomes of the population, and consequently and
Monetary weight (any government hardly can resist to it
To pressure). In a case of considerable release of money in the reference, repayments
The state debts (including under the salary) at the expense of the poor
Issue reserves, the rise in prices can appear uncontrollable. It will be
To be urged on by prompt falling of a rouble exchange rate, which in conditions
The developed extremely non-uniform structure of distribution of incomes will be
To be exposed to more and more strong pressure of from outside increasing rouble
Weights. It, in turn, will urge on a rise in prices, level decrease
Now various variants of an overcoming the crisis are discussed: from
Introductions of measures of direct administration to a mode of the most severe economy,
Reductions of the State expenditure, bindings of a rouble exchange rate to a basket of the firm
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