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One and a half time counting on a year. Principal causes of outflow of the capital from the country
Lie out of macroeconomic sphere.
Till 2001 hardly it is necessary to expect substantial improvement
Economic situation. In intermediate term prospect the Russian economy
Will be under pressure debt loading. Investment lifting, and
Accordingly essential acceleration of growth of manufacture till 2001
It is not necessary to expect at any of scenarios of a macroeconomic policy.
Theoretically outside of this millenium probably essential
Acceleration of economic development, growth of investments in economy of Russia, if
System risks will be lowered, stable and clear rules are defined
Games. Considering stated, the most rational and probable scenario
Evolutions of the Russian economy sees as primary development
Home market, including, and consumer which will be
To be filled not only import, but also domestic products. Revival on
The consumer market stimulates investments, shows those sectors, in
Which return from investments can be received in reasonable terms. It not
Consequences of the balanced growth there will be that concentration Russian
The capital (power sector) can theoretically promote increase
Investment activity. It is not necessary to exclude that in separate years rates
Growth of industrial investments can advance rates of increase of consumption
(After 2001). One of features of development of the Russian economy can
To be that at potentially possible concerning low rates
Economy growth the next years (at the best an order above 2 percent
After 2000) qualitative changes in a population standard of living can
To appear rather appreciable if the country goes by the way of the balanced
Developments of some the branches focused not only on external, but also on
Home market. First two scenarios considered above in intermediate term
Most likely it will appear to prospect not realised. By estimations, development on
To "inertial" way can proceed no more than year-two. Further
Economic situation deterioration will force the power or to pass to that or
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