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2. The comparative analysis of scenarios of development of the Russian economy in
1999-2003 and variants of an intermediate term macroeconomic policy.
Expected economic conditions of 1999
The measures planned by the government on crisis overcoming, and also the project
The budget for 1999, by an estimation, will lead to that total amount of incomes
The federal budget will make in 1999 no more than 9-9,5 percent of gross national product that
Approximately for one percent it is less, than in 1998. Reduction of incomes of the budget
In 1999 it will be caused by not so much decrease in the rate under the VAT, how much
Becomes a consequence of some other decisions (clearings, possibility
Uses of a part of the frozen state credit obligations for payment of taxes, delays
To the enterprises of agrarian sector, etc.).
In 1999 hardly it is possible to hope for increase of a collecting of taxes -
Current and predicted level of a monetization of economy will serve
The objective terminator. Really, till now the core
The tax bearer in Russia is the sector of the enterprises - i.e. the cores
Tax revenues in the budget directly are dependent on volumes had
The enterprises of money resources. A surtax share - the core
The tax with which physical persons are assessed - makes an order 2.5
Gross national product percent. And this tax mainly arrives in the local
On fig. 1 dependence of tax revenues in federal is shown and
Consolidated budgets from volume of the rests of means on an abacus of the enterprises.
Apparently from schedules, the relation of monthly tax revenues in
The consolidated budget of the country to the rests of means on an abacus of the enterprises
Steadily makes an order of 50 percent, and in federal - an order 20
Percent (except for seasonal splashes). Thus the enterprises are
Also the basic payers in off-budget funds. From the same bills
The enterprises the wages to workers act in film. Thus, even if
To assume that increase of level of a collecting of taxes will appear possible
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