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2. The comparative analysis of scenarios of development of the Russian economy in

1999-2003 and variants of an intermediate term macroeconomic policy.

Expected economic conditions of 1999

The measures planned by the government on crisis overcoming, and also the project

The budget for 1999, by an estimation, will lead to that total amount of incomes

The federal budget will make in 1999 no more than 9-9,5 percent of gross national product that

Approximately for one percent it is less, than in 1998. Reduction of incomes of the budget

In 1999 it will be caused by not so much decrease in the rate under the VAT, how much

Becomes a consequence of some other decisions (clearings, possibility

Uses of a part of the frozen state credit obligations for payment of taxes, delays

To the enterprises of agrarian sector, etc.).

In 1999 hardly it is possible to hope for increase of a collecting of taxes -

Current and predicted level of a monetization of economy will serve The objective terminator. Really, till now the core The tax bearer in Russia is the sector of the enterprises - i.e. the cores Tax revenues in the budget directly are dependent on volumes had The enterprises of money resources. A surtax share - the core The tax with which physical persons are assessed - makes an order 2.5 Gross national product percent. And this tax mainly arrives in the local Budgets.

On fig. 1 dependence of tax revenues in federal is shown and

Consolidated budgets from volume of the rests of means on an abacus of the enterprises.

Apparently from schedules, the relation of monthly tax revenues in

The consolidated budget of the country to the rests of means on an abacus of the enterprises

Steadily makes an order of 50 percent, and in federal - an order 20 Percent (except for seasonal splashes). Thus the enterprises are Also the basic payers in off-budget funds. From the same bills The enterprises the wages to workers act in film. Thus, even if

To assume that increase of level of a collecting of taxes will appear possible

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